Excellent article (below) on why the Indians should "move in a new direction" without Wedge (obtained from this link):
http://about90feet.com/?cat=14“At this time, we feel it is in our best interest to move in a new direction…”
Thursday, July 10th, 2008
It seems like that phrase is always a part of the press conference following the firing of a manager or a general manager and I, for one, am ready to hear those words depart the lips of Mark Shapiro as he announces that Eric Wedge will no longer be with the team.
I don’t particularly want to hear the phrase during the season, but sometime this October, between the end of the Indians season and the end of the World Series, I think the Tribe needs to start looking in a new direction (Although, if Wedge’s heir is already somewhere in the system or otherwise available to take over the job immediately, it might make sense to make the move sooner and let the new guy learn on the job).
And I am not calling for Wedge’s head as a knee-jerk reaction to a rough season, but because of what I see as a pattern of poor decision making that is hampering the organization in its quest to take the next step. I don’t believe that a manger can impact a team’s wins and losses in a significant way on a daily basis (assuming that the manager uses a reasonable lineup and rotation, I just don’t think the decisions to hit-and-run, play match-ups, etc. really hurt or help a team a ton), but I think that some of Wedge’s decisions are causing long-term damage to the organization.
The biggest issue I see is a complete unwillingness to play young players. And this dates back a few years. In 2004, Grady Sizemore showed some real potential, with a .333 OBP, .406 SLG and 97 OPS+, over 159 plate appearances, none of which are incredibly stellar, but the guy was a league average offensive player at age 21, and when a guy is league average at 21 he is a) destined for stardom and b) not in need of any further seasoning at AAA. As a point of reference, Justin Upton has a 102 OPS+ in his age 20 season. And he earned the right to stay in the bigs this year despite a 62 OPS+ last year. Both guys are centerfielders, both had solid minor league numbers. And yet for his age 22 season, Grady was nearly sent back down to AAA by the Indians. He only got added to the team because Juan Gonzalez couldn’t stay healthy. And what did Grady do in 2005? Put up a 123 OPS+, tagged 22 HR, and even picked up a few misguided votes in the MVP balloting. So you would think that Wedge would learn from his mistake.
But in 2006, Wedge was so reluctant to give Brandon Philips another shot the Indians were forced into trading him away for next to nothing (no offense to Jeff Stevens). It would take Philips another year to truly develop (his 88 OPS+ in 2006 wasn’t exactly world-beating), but denying Philips a shot opened up a black hole at second base that, with the exception of two solid (but overrated) months of Asdrubal Cabrera in 2007, the team has proven unable to fill.
In 2007, Wedge stuck with Trot Nixon, Jason Michaels and David Dellucci far too long, while both Ben Francisco and Franklin Gutierrez were raking in Buffalo. Same with Barfield and Asdrubal at 2B.
And now, in 2008, even as the season has clearly devolved into a rebuilding campaign, he sticks with Casey Blake at 3rd and Ryan Garko at first while Andy Marte rots away on the bench. Say what you want about Marte, but here is a guy who posted an 80 OPS+ in limited playing time at age 22 and since then has been relegated to less than 130 plate appearances over TWO SEASONS. Garko on the year, by the way, has a 78 OPS+. So even if you don’t want to bench Blake, maybe it is time to let Marte play third with Blake at first just to see what we have in this kid. Otherwise we are going to watch him walk away for nothing. If we are going to lose him, let’s at least be sure we are losing a bust and not a guy still waiting for a legit shot.
And the pattern of sticking with known quantities rather than giving someone or something new a shot extends beyond just giving youngsters a shot. Wedge seems to rely on only 3-4 relief pitchers, rarely allowing anyone else to touch a potentially meaningful inning. Are all those innings pitched by the top guys responsible for Betancourt’s implosion against the Sox in the ALCS? Or for his struggles this year? Did the lack of faith in half the pen require extra effort from Westbrook, Carmona and Sabathia in 2007, contributing to the injuries suffered by the former two and the rough start by the latter, all of which contributed to the weak showing by the team? Honestly, I have no idea, but it is definitely something to consider and lowering the number of taxing innings pitched by those guys couldn’t have hurt.
Similarly, Wedge has reacted woefully slowly to the emergence of Grady Sizemore as a true “middle of the order” hitter and, perhaps just as importantly, to the disintegration of the rest of the middle of our lineup. As early as 2006, Grady was hitting like a speedy three hitter. A great example, actually, is a young Barry Bonds (seriously) who started off his career as a leadoff hitter before transforming into a middle of the order beast. Barry’s age 21-25 OPS+’s were: 103, 114, 148, 126, 170. Grady’s were/are: 97, 123, 132, 122, 140. Barry was a bit higher across the board, particularly in year 5, but you get the idea. Point is, Bonds was a middle of the lineup guy in that age 25 season (incidentally, Pittsburgh won the NL East that year). Now, a couple years ago, or even last year, it was fairly safe to leave Grady up top. With Pronk and Vic and even Garko hitting in the middle, letting Grady bat with no one on was a reasonable choice. But by the start of 2008, or at the very least by May, it was clear that Grady was one of the few guys on this team capable of driving in runs and hitting with some power.
Now, having said that, I fully understand that there is no one else on this roster capable of hitting in the leadoff spot. To be perfectly honest, the way this team is constructed, Grady is our best option for the 1-4 spots and there is no one else even REMOTELY close to him at any of them. But it has become abundantly clear that the best place for Grady in the future is batting in the middle of the lineup, likely 3rd (Note for those of you arguing that your best hitter should get the most plate appearances: according to a John Dewan study of the 2006 MLB season, the average #1 hitter gets 35 more plate appearances than the average #3 hitter but comes to bat with men on base 92 more times. In other words, you give up 4.6% of your plate appearances, but get 35.5% more opportunities to bat with men on base. If you think that the result of that would be FEWER runs for the Indians with Grady batting 3rd, you are out of your mind).
A team that has limited resources, like the Indians, needs to be quick on its feet and needs to always be finding ways to get more production for less money. Maximizing the value of a guy like Sizemore, protecting the arms of your young pitchers, and finding talent in your rookies and youngsters are the best ways to do this. We have a GM who seems to understand this and who has consistently found ways to take pricey veterans who are contributing small amounts (Eduardo Perez, Ben Broussard, Bob Wickman were all turned into valuable prospects) or to trade guys who are more valuable to other teams than they are to us (15 months of Bartolo Colon, 3 months of CC Sabathia, Coco Crisp moving from left at the Jake to center at Fenway) and to improve the team in the process (again, say what you want about Marte, but Crisp hasn’t exactly been a world-beater in Boston and most of his value comes from being a stellar centerfielder…and we already have one of those. And don’t forget that Shoppach came over in that deal as well). But our manager seems incapable of maximizing those moves, unless he has no other choice.
There are a few other things that MIGHT be Wedge’s fault, but which I have no hard evidence to support - the team’s remarkable ability to consistently underperform it’s pythagorean winning percentage (although I imagine the bullpen’s poor performance is really to blame), the fact that every hitter on the current roster is underperforming (except Grady, of course), the fact that this team still seems to make more baserunning and fielding blunders than most others, etc. - but it is the reasons listed above that have me looking forward to the post-Wedge era in Cleveland.
): Decided to clean things up a little bit, deleting some of the stuff from last season now that it's over. Also edited Larry's info (the 1-run games are a great stat) into this original post.
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